In July, shipments were down 19 % from the previous year and totaled 19.6 million pounds. However, by the end of the year, total shipments were up 21 % from the previous season, reaching a record high of 400.2 million pounds. Activity was limited this month as both sellers and buyers acted cautiously. Shell prices fell in relation to the subdued market and buyers waited for signs of stability. Some buyers took advantage of small volume purchases to secure lower prices, although these did not reflect the general market trend. Looking ahead, demand is expected to be strong to meet the demand for Diwali.
Shipments to the region totaled 8.8 million pounds this month, an increase of 19 % compared to last year. By the end of the season, however, the total volume had fallen by 13 % to 148 million pounds. China struggled with low demand throughout the year and ended the season 26 % lower than the previous year. Some of this demand shifted to South East Asia, which benefited from more favorable tariff structures, with Vietnam and Thailand recording increases of 56 % and 29 % respectively by the end of the year. Buyers are currently cautious but will need to make purchases soon to prepare for the upcoming Chinese New Year. The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival in September will provide valuable insights into future demand trends and set the tone for the market going forward.
Shipments to the region totaled 48.3 million pounds, a decrease of 8 % compared to the previous year. Despite this, the region ended the crop year with an increase of over 1 % and a total volume of 642 million pounds. With pipelines running low, buyers will need to purchase additional volumes to complete supplies for the remainder of the calendar year.
Shipments to this region continued their strong performance, totaling 18.2 million pounds for the month, an increase of 44 % over the previous year. The Middle East ended the crop year with 324.4 million pounds, an increase of 19 % from the previous year. Recent market activity has been subdued and buyers are anticipating a potential price decline. Demand is expected to increase in the coming weeks to meet demand for the earlier Ramadan.
In July, shipments amounted to over 53 million pounds, a decrease of 6 % compared to 2023. Monthly shipments have fluctuated wildly this year, resembling a rollercoaster ride. However, a strong second half of the year led to year-over-year growth after two consecutive years of decline in the domestic market. For the 2023 crop year, shipments totaled over 728 million pounds, an increase of 12 million pounds, or 2 %, from the previous year. Looking ahead, the domestic market remains central to the industry's overall performance. Economic headwinds impacting purchasing decisions and shelf prices must be met with innovation to increase demand for almonds. Commitments for the new crop have increased by almost 30 million pounds compared to last year, indicating sufficient coverage of short-term demand for the new year.
Total commitments for the year amounted to £238 million, a decrease of £36 % on the previous year, highlighting the low level of uncommitted inventories not seen in recent years. At the end of July, uncommitted stocks totaled 268 million pounds, also a decrease of 36 % from the previous year. New sales for the current crop totaled 70 million pounds, down 36 % from a year ago, largely due to a market slowdown and unexpected price increases in line with the target estimate.
Nevertheless, sales since the beginning of the year are 3 % higher than last season. Buyers have turned to lower prices in their local markets and are taking advantage of limited available inventory. Prices in California are expected to stabilize once demand returns.
Sales of the new harvest increased by 32 % compared to the previous year and reached 98 million pounds. Looking ahead to the 2024 harvest year, booked sales are 85 % higher than in the previous year.
With a projected carryover of less than 500 million pounds and an estimated harvest of 2.8 billion pounds, the total supply for the 2024 season is essentially unchanged. Harvest began two weeks ago; therefore, it is too early to predict production volume or quality. Further details will be announced in the coming weeks.
The industry closes the 2023 harvest year with a positive result: total deliveries increase by 5 %. Carryovers were successfully reduced to achieve a more balanced supply/demand ratio. Market activity was subdued this month as prices firmed following the objective estimate. As buyers prepare for the holiday season demand, they have adopted a wait-and-see attitude to monitor price trends. Prices are expected to stabilize as demand picks up in the coming weeks.
Harvest is underway and the outlook for the 2024 crop will become clearer as we assess receipts for quality, size and delivery potential in the coming weeks.
Senior Sales Director Nut Ingredients
German 
English 
French 
Polish