India continues its strong pace with 26.9 million pounds of shipments for the month, an increase of 74 % over last year. Year to date, shipments are up 24 % compared to the previous season. In the run up to the objective estimate, buyers have been relatively quiet. However, activity is expected to pick up following the publication of the report. With a lower crop forecast, prices in California are picking up, making local Indian prices more attractive and likely to boost demand. In addition, an earlier Diwali festival is expected to further boost demand.
Shipments to the region continue to face obstacles and amounted to 5.5 million pounds in the month under review. This represents a decrease of 52 % year-on-year and a decrease of 14.7 % year-to-date. Lower than usual demand continues to be a challenge for the region as buyers remained quiet in June following an active May. Currently, local prices are lower than California listings. Buyers are expected to hold off until demand increases. The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival in September is expected to provide an opportunity for improvement.
Shipments to the region totaled 43.5 million pounds, down 11 % from the previous year, with year-to-date shipments 2 % higher than the previous season. Similar to other regions, market activity was quiet in the two weeks leading up to the objective estimate. Buyers were waiting for the forecast in order to be confident that prices would not fall below current levels. Buying activity is expected to increase as there is greater demand in this region to cover supplies for the new crop.
Growth in this region continues to be sustained: 31.3 million pounds were shipped in June, an increase of 145 % over the previous year and an increase of 18 % since the beginning of the year. According to the objective estimate, many market participants have adopted a cautious stance. Buyers have covered their short-term needs and will wait for price stability before making further decisions. Overall, demand is expected to remain constant until the new harvest.
In June, shipments reached over 62 million pounds, continuing the upward trend for the third consecutive month, with an increase of 1.9 % compared to June 2023. Year to date, domestic shipments totaled 675 million pounds, an increase of 2.3 % compared to last year. The industry needs to ship 41.4 million pounds in July to match last year's result. After three years of declining shipments, we expect July to show solid year-over-year growth.
Committed deliveries total 347 million pounds, a decrease of 23 % compared to the previous year. Uncommitted stocks are now at 338 million pounds, 36 % lower than last year. New sales for the current crop are 92 million pounds, down 40 % from last year due to limited activity ahead of targets. Sales for the current year after 11 months are 5 % higher than last season. New crop sales are 122 % higher than last year at 271 million pounds.
Assuming a harvest of 2.44 billion pounds, shipments and commitments now account for 91 % of total supply, compared to 84 % last year. The industry is expected to reach a carryover of about 485 million pounds. This estimate assumes a loss of 2 %, with actual losses this season in excess of 4 %. The additional losses will impact the carry-in for 2024 and push this figure below 450 million pounds. This would put the stock-to-use ratio at 16 % to 17 %, a figure not seen in the last five years.
On July 10, the USDA's objective estimate was released, forecasting 2.8 billion pounds for the 2024 crop. This forecast is 7 % below the subjective estimate and 13 % above the 2023 crop. The forecast is based on 1.38 million acres. This estimate has undoubtedly surprised the market, causing prices to rise again since its publication. The development of the harvest and quality remain of paramount importance for the industry.
Recent heat waves in California have raised concerns about the impact on the ripening crop, primarily slowing or halting shell splitting. Prolonged pod splitting could increase susceptibility to insect damage, a concern that growers are already harboring. The impact on harvest time is still uncertain at this stage.
The June position report was in line with the industry's expectations and kept the pace of the harvest year coming to an end high. Remaining stocks consist of lower quality almonds, resulting in limited supply and allowing for a tight transition to the new crop. The objective estimate has supported prices given a smaller projected 2024 crop. Combined with a favorable carryout, this will bring supply closer to demand and contribute to price stability in the global market. With minimal stocks at destination, demand is expected to continue in the weeks leading up to the harvest.
The industry will continue to assess the 2024 harvest. Following the objective estimate, our attention is now turning to price discovery, as market activity is expected to increase in the coming weeks.
Senior Sales Director Nut Ingredients
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