November shipments totaled 20.2 million pounds, down 47 % from a year ago. In the fourth month of the crop year, the year-to-date backlog has grown to 23 %, with total shipments at 122.4 million pounds, compared to 159.8 million pounds at this time last year. Local sales have been strong in all channels, depleting inventory levels. The weak shipping month is a clear indicator that India needs to buy. Buying activity is starting to pick up as buyers work to replenish their inventories.
Shipments to the region totaled 16.7 million pounds this month, a decrease of 28 % compared to last year. Year to date, shipments are 22 % lower than last year. Shipments to China have fallen by 42 % this year as the country relies heavily on direct shipments from Australia due to the free trade agreement and supplements these with Californian products from other countries not affected by tariffs. As a result, shipments to Vietnam have increased by 63 % since the beginning of the year. Buyers in the region remain cautious in light of the change in the Trump administration as they await clarity on the future of the tariff agenda.
Shipments to the continent saw a significant upturn and recorded their largest month to date at £85.9 million, an increase of 75 % on the previous year. This brings year to date shipments in line with last year's totals. The strong performance is unsurprising given that shipments were low at the start of the year and the supply of European material was limited by tight carry-in. Demand remains strong, with additional need, although buyers are likely to continue to live hand-to-mouth due to high prices.
The Middle East continues to be a strong region in terms of export volumes. More than 42.4 million pounds were shipped this month, an increase of 31 % over last year; total shipments for the year are just under 148 million pounds, an increase of 38 %. Prices have remained stable as most market participants have become accustomed to the "new normal" and confidence in price stability continues to grow. With demand for Ramadan covered and many of the early bookings now arriving at destination, buyers will continue to monitor price trends. They will now look to resupply in the New Year for the post-Ramadan holidays, while Saudi buyers will also be looking to cover their needs for the upcoming Hajj pilgrimage, which is expected to attract over 2 million people to Mecca.
In November, 54.4 million pounds were shipped, 9.8 % less than in the previous year. Domestic shipments are now at 239.9 million pounds, down 1 % from last year. We continue to see trends similar to last crop year, with domestic shipment results riding a wave but remaining close to last year's levels. Hand-to-mouth buying continues to be seen, resulting in a 19.2 % decrease in domestic commitments compared to last year. There are sufficient volumes in the pipeline to meet upcoming shipping needs and the potential for a strong finish to the calendar year.
At 611.8 million pounds, total commitments were slightly below the previous year's level, which corresponds to a decrease of 5.5 % compared to the previous year. However, export commitments increased by 4.2 % to a total of 394.1 million pounds. Uncommitted stocks now stand at 1.27 million pounds, an increase of 19 % from last year due to an earlier harvest. .
New sales reached 209.5 million pounds, an increase of 1 % from last year. Assuming a harvest of 2.8 billion pounds, current supplies and commitments represent 47 % of total supply, down from 49 % last year
This year's harvest is essentially complete, with crop receipts totaling £2.34 billion, an increase of £25 % on last year's £1.87 billion, although it should be noted that last year's harvest period was delayed due to weather conditions. Many in the industry believe that the harvest is likely to fall short of the 2.8 billion pounds.
The November position report far exceeded expectations, setting a new record for the month and bringing the total for the first four months of the year to last year's level. Sellers are gaining confidence as the crop is delivered and prices continue to rise. Buyers are also adjusting to the higher prices and are becoming more confident in their purchases as they no longer fear an immediate drop in prices. With stocks tight, incoming produce is going straight to market rather than being stored, indicating strong demand which should continue to support prices in the new year
The industry is closely monitoring receipts to determine the final size of the harvest. Speculation is growing that the 2024 harvest could fall short of the expected 2.8 billion pounds. While it is still too early to make a definitive statement, a clearer picture should emerge by January. The industry is closely monitoring the potential impact of the Trump administration's tariffs and how they could affect future demand.
Senior Sales Director Nut Ingredients
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