In June, shipments to India totaled 34.7 million pounds, an increase of 29 % over the previous year. This brings year-to-date exports to 377.2 million pounds, narrowing the gap from last season to just 1 %. India continued to be a key demand driver for the industry in June as buyers purchased large volumes ahead of the early Diwali festival.
Timely deliveries are still essential to meet demand for festivals. While some covers are still outstanding, attention is shifting to the new crop after the objective estimate signaling larger than expected supplies. Despite this, buyer sentiment is cautious, with the focus now on crop execution, size and quality, which will drive pricing and cover strategies through the end of the year.
Shipments to the China-Hong Kong-Vietnam corridor totaled nearly 6.5 million pounds in June, an increase of 17 % compared to the same month last year. Despite the monthly increase, year-to-date volumes have declined by 24.5 %, highlighting the ongoing impact of tariffs on California's competitiveness in the region. Within the trio, Vietnam has proven to be the most reliable entry point for US products into Asia. On the mainland, Chinese buyers continue to favor Australian origin as they benefit from duty-free access and competitive freight routes. However, as the Australian crop outlook deteriorates, some buyers are beginning to reassess their coverage for the future, which could lead to opportunistic demand for US origin, especially for specific or gap-filling volumes, depending on favorable price developments. For now, the market remains in a holding pattern.
Shipments to Europe reached 44.4 million pounds in June, a modest increase of 2 % on the previous year. Despite a slow start to the season, cumulative shipments are now at the same level as last year. The dynamics within the regions have shifted, with Spain maintaining its top position despite a year-on-year decline of 11 %. With the objective estimate now published and pointing to a potentially larger crop, buyers are expected to start evaluating new crop positions. However, the pending decision on the enforcement of EU tariffs, which has now been postponed until August, is likely to dampen short-term buying activity as market participants adopt a cautious stance.
Shipments to the Middle East fell sharply in June, totaling 19.4 million pounds - a decline of over 30 % year-on-year. This decline reflects the impact of regional instability and geopolitical tensions, which have disrupted short-term demand. Despite the weak June performance, shipments are up 7 % year-on-year, driven by strong performances in Jordan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Looking ahead to Ramadan, which is expected in 2026, forward demand is likely to increase as buyers seek to secure early supplies from the 2025 harvest to ensure sufficient cover.
In June, domestic shipments totaled 51.4 million pounds, a decrease of 17.2 % compared to the same month last year. This brings year-to-date domestic shipments to 621 million pounds, down 8 % from a year ago. In crop year 2023, USDA support contributed approximately 20 million pounds to the market, the majority of which was shipped by the end of June. While this support provided short-term relief, underlying domestic demand remains weak and is impacted by general economic conditions and changing consumer buying patterns. Going forward, it will be critical to reaffirm the value and versatility of almonds across all product categories to support consumer engagement and drive demand.
Total commitments reached 312 million pounds, a decrease of 10 % compared to the previous year. New sales totaled 96.6 million pounds this month, an increase of 5 % from last year. Current shipments and commitments now account for 87.4 % of total supply, slightly below last year's level of 89.4 %.
New crop sales are reported at 111.5 million pounds, down significantly from 271 million pounds at this time last year. Continued uncertainty regarding tariffs and crop size continues to be a limiting factor in forward bookings.
The USDA NASS "California Almond Objective Measurement Report" forecasts a 2025 harvest of 3.0 billion pounds, which is higher than the subjective estimate of 2.8 billion pounds and the 2024 harvest of 2.7 billion pounds. This forecast is based on 1.39 million acres and a yield of 2,160 pounds per acre. However, many in the industry believe this forecast may be overstated, citing recent declines in new plantings and continued pressure on grower profitability.
These challenges have led to reduced inputs that have affected the productivity of a significant number of orchards, and even the abandonment of some, which may result in a gap between the reported acreage and the actual cultivable area. The projected yield also exceeds the weighted 10- and 15-year averages. As the harvest progresses, the industry will continue to focus on revenue and realized yields to assess whether actual production matches or deviates from the forecast.
At the beginning of the report, the balance between supply and demand appeared to be relatively stable. However, the weaker late season shipments indicate a slightly higher carryout in the mid 500 million pound range, which corresponds to a manageable carryout to shipments ratio of 19 %.
While many were hoping for the objective report to provide clearer direction, its release has instead led to greater uncertainty as the forecast is widely believed to be overestimated. Market discovery in the coming weeks could prove difficult, especially given the added complexity arising from the expanded tariff review under Trump's trade policies. As a result, hand-to-mouth buying is expected to continue as the industry closely monitors revenues and actual production against forecasts.
Senior Sales Director Nut Ingredients
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