Almond Market Update March 2026

India shipped 41.3 million pounds in February, bringing year-to-date shipments to 213.1 million pounds, compared to 221.4 million pounds in the same period last year. This represents a year-on-year decline of around 4 %. Although the pace is slightly behind that of the previous year, demand factors in India remain favorable overall. Local inventory levels are considered relatively manageable and retail prices have remained stable in several key trading centers. However, buying activity has been somewhat mixed in recent weeks as importers monitor global price trends and general macroeconomic conditions. Market participants are also closely monitoring currency developments and potential political developments related to import tariffs, as both can influence buying behavior.

Shipments to China and Hong Kong totaled 3.3 million pounds in February, an increase of 144 % year-over-year. Shipments to Vietnam reached 6.0 million pounds, an increase of 155 % month-over-month and an impressive 72 % year-over-year. Combined shipments to these regions were up 151 % year-over-year in February, bringing the year-to-date total into positive territory for the first time this 2025 crop year at 0.34 %. This result is an encouraging sign of strengthening demand and continued momentum in these key markets.

Europe recorded another month of solid demand with shipments totaling 74.2 million pounds, continuing the trend for the year. Buyers continue to pursue a strategy of buying on demand, which should lead to continued demand for the remainder of the year. Spain and Italy continue to record strong growth of 16 % and 18 % respectively. Germany recorded a year-on-year decline of 2 %, but continues to provide a stable level of demand. While some markets on the continent remain cautious, overall demand from Europe continues to ensure stability on the export markets.

Shipments to the Middle East totaled 28.1 million pounds in February, bringing year-to-date shipments to 233.1 million pounds - an increase of approximately 5 % over last year. The region continues to be an important market for California almonds, supported by strong consumer demand and well-established trade channels. Turkey, Israel and Lebanon are performing better year-on-year, while Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq are all experiencing double-digit year-on-year declines. Normally, the next week or two would be expected to see a restocking for Ramadan as buyers return to the market; however, with recent geopolitical developments in the region bringing additional uncertainties regarding logistics and trade flows, some of this demand may be lost. While the overall underlying demand across the Middle East remains stable, disruptions to shipping routes and schedules have caused short-term delays and required adjustments to freight planning and handling. Market participants are monitoring developments closely, while both sides of the trade are exploring alternative route options as required.

Shipments in February amounted to 45 million pounds, a decrease of 19.9 % compared to the same period last year. Demand in the domestic market continues to fall, with results down 18.1 % overall since the start of the year. New business performed well, with a year-on-year increase of 72 % resulting in forward contracts falling by only 1.1 %. This market continues to face multiple challenges, particularly reflected in categories such as snack almonds, which saw double-digit declines in the last quarter. Recent booking activity has allowed buyers to be patient when deciding when to cover the final stretch of this crop year.