Despite a year full of uncertainty, we are ending 2025 on a positive note. The international macadamia market is stabilizing, especially after the significant reduction in US tariffs on South African macadamia nuts. Together with the initial forecasts of a good harvest, confidence for the 2026 season is growing noticeably.
Looking back, sales of this year's harvest were encouragingly stable. Further harvest reductions in South Africa's main growing areas reported by SAMAC during the course of the year led to processors largely reducing their stocks. There is hardly any nut-in-shell (NIS) stock left unsold.
Although 2025 began optimistically, significant crop declines caused noticeable uncertainty. The third quarter was 6.38% below the expected volume for 2024, bringing the season's volume to an estimated 81,660 tons. This shortage is likely to lead to short positions for some processors at the start of the 2026 season, but at the same time ensure firm prices and minimal surpluses for sought-after kernel grades.
An important impetus for 2026 comes from the US: the new executive order of November 14 significantly reduces the previously introduced 30 % tariffs – to USD 0.013/kg for NIS and USD 0.05/kg for kernels. The practical impact of this adjustment will become apparent with the first deliveries to the country. However, it is clear that these reductions are likely to significantly boost demand.
The market is also stable outside the US. In Europe and Asia, the long-term purchasing strategies that have been reestablished since 2024 are continuing. Many buyers are securing volumes early on in order to reliably supply their customers and production lines. For the beginning of 2026, there is strong interest in early volume commitments, particularly in the European retail sector.
Demand also remains strong in China: as expected, large processors have secured increased quantities of S1S and S4L kernels as well as 20–22 mm NIS, despite an officially reported harvest of 74,500 tons (internally more likely around 65,000 tons). Price discipline and high processing specifications continue to characterize market behavior.
We at BBS would like to express our sincere gratitude to all our customers for their trust in this challenging year. Together with our partner Global Macadamia We are optimistic about the 2026 season. We look forward to continuing to supply you with high-quality South African macadamias in the coming year and to working with you to seize new opportunities in the market.
Director Global Partner
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