October shipments to India totaled 29.4 million pounds, down 39 % from last year. After three months, shipments this year total 102.1 million pounds, down 16 % from last season. Strong and profitable Diwali sales saw the market enter the festive season with minimal stocks. In the days leading up to Diwali, buyers returned to the market and maintained prices for nuts as they resumed buying at similar price levels as they had left earlier. Container arrivals in Nhava Sheva continue to experience delays, ensuring a steady and consistent flow of produce into the market and preventing a build-up of stocks. Since the end of the festive season, Indian buyers have continued to be active to replenish their stocks and maintain the momentum of the market post Diwali.
Shipments to the region totaled 20.8 million pounds this month, a decrease of 28 % compared to last year. Year to date, shipments are 19 % behind last year. As the Chinese New Year (CNY) approaches, both buyers and sellers in the almond market are focused on fulfilling orders within the limited timeframe to ensure timely delivery. Consumer demand has been strong during the recent Mid-Autumn Festival, and similar expectations are being made for the CNY Festival starting on January 29. According to reports, inventory levels in the market are minimal and buyers are proceeding cautiously while still hoping for price relief. However, some buyers have opted to stock up small quantities for the post-Chinese National Day period at current prices, as shellfish prices are supported by current demand. Following the re-election of President Donald Trump, buyers are expected to maintain their cautious approach until his administration's stance on tariffs becomes clearer.
Shipments to Europe totaled 42.1 million pounds, down just over 4 % from the previous year, bringing year-to-date shipments to 111.7 million pounds, down 25 % from the previous year. European buyers remain skeptical of the higher prices in California and are turning to the limited local supply when available. In addition, buyers continue to struggle to find a sufficient supply of STD5 from California. It is therefore likely that European buyers will continue to buy from hand to mouth for the foreseeable future.
The Middle East continues to be the top export market with impressive shipments totaling 57.2 million pounds, an increase of 46 % over the previous year. Year-to-date shipments have exceeded 105 million pounds, an increase of 41 %. Many buyers are adjusting to the continued price stability and those who have been waiting are now acting quickly to meet the remaining Ramadan demand. The United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have seen notable growth this year, with the UAE now the second largest export market after India, followed by Turkey in third place.
Shipments in October reached 67.4 million pounds, up 18 % year-over-year. This is the strongest month for domestic shipments since the record in the 2020/21 crop year, resulting in an increase of 2 % year-on-year, a significant recovery from the 5 % deficit following the September results. Due to the recent price firming, buyers have taken their purchases from hand to mouth, resulting in domestic commitments falling by 20.8 % year-on-year. Despite this cautious buying strategy, new sales have increased by 4 % this month.
Total commitments have improved to 673.7 million pounds and are therefore slightly below the previous year's level. However, export commitments are 13 % higher than last year at £458.5m. With this performance, the industry is well placed for the next two months as sellers work to fulfill orders.
Uncommitted stocks currently stand at 997 million pounds, an increase of 32 % from last year due to an earlier harvest. Exports continue to drive new sales, reaching 264.7 million pounds, an increase of 6 % over last year. Assuming a harvest of 2.8 billion pounds, current supplies and commitments account for 41 % of total supply, compared to 42 % last year.
This year's harvest is essentially complete, with crop receipts totaling 1.85 billion pounds. The industry is expected to have a more accurate picture of the final harvest volume in January. Due to the lower moisture content this year, almonds were shelled and peeled quickly, and many facilities have already completed their work for this season. Growers are now concentrating on the post-harvest in the orchards. Rainfall over the next two months will be crucial to replenish the orchard soils and store water for the coming growing season.
Overall, the position report for October offers a favorable outlook. Although the results were slightly below forecasts, they were strong enough to support prices. Sellers are feeling more comfortable as the crop is delivered and prices are trending upwards. Similarly, buyers are getting used to the firmer prices and are gaining confidence that they can buy without fear of an immediate price drop. Destination countries continue to have tight stocks as incoming produce is going straight to market and not into storage, indicating strong demand which should continue to support prices in the new year.
With the harvest now complete, the industry is closely monitoring receipts to determine the final harvest volume. Many believe that the 2024 harvest could fall short of the projected 2.8 billion pounds. Although it is still too early to make a final assessment, a clearer picture should emerge by January. In addition, many in the industry are speculating about the impact of a possible Trump victory on tariffs and future demand.
Senior Sales Director Nut Ingredients
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