Almond market update October 2024

Industry shipments totaled 213.6 million pounds in the second month of the crop year, up 27 % from the previous month but down 2 % from the same period last year. Exports rose significantly to 157.6 million pounds, an increase of 48 % on the previous month and 2 % on the previous year. In contrast, domestic shipments were lower, totaling 55.9 million pounds, a decrease of 11 % from the same period last year. For the second month in a row, total shipments fell short of expectations. However, after a slow start due to limited inventories, exports are gaining momentum. With many regions having minimal stock levels and demand for the upcoming holidays and festivals, exports are expected to increase in the coming weeks.

Shipments

India:

Shipments this month totaled 44.6 million pounds, a decrease of 13 % compared to the previous year. Year to date, shipments are down 1 % to a total of 72.8 million pounds. Buying activity has slowed in recent weeks and there has been a clear shift towards selling. However, sales are going well and, more importantly, are profitable. Based on contracts signed earlier in the summer at favorable prices compared to current California and local market prices, shipments of the new crop are now arriving. As traders take advantage of these favorable cost positions, continued profit taking is expected to keep product coming to market. Accordingly, buyers are expected to return and resume buying activity in the coming weeks.

China/
Hong Kong/
Vietnam:

Shipments to the region rose to 14.7 million pounds, an increase of 11 % compared to the previous month. Year to date shipments totaled 20.2 million pounds, down 7.1 % from last season. Overall buying activity remains subdued, with most buyers adopting a cautious stance. However, consumer demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival performed well, raising positive expectations for the upcoming Chinese New Year. Demand is expected to increase as China tries to secure additional coverage ahead of the festivities.

Europe:

Shipments to the region reached 30.9 million pounds, a decrease of 25 % compared to the previous year. Shipments this year totaled 69.6 million pounds, a decrease of 34 % from last year. Activity remained steady throughout the month, with buyers primarily focused on meeting their immediate needs. However, they continue to view the higher prices being offered in California with caution and skepticism. Some buyers attempted to source Spanish almonds, but availability was limited. With inventories still low, demand is expected to continue, especially as the need for additional coverage increases ahead of the upcoming holiday season.

Middle East:

After a slow start in the first month, shipments to the region rebounded strongly in September, reaching 38.1 million pounds - an impressive increase of 110 % compared to last season. Year-to-date shipments total 48.3 million pounds, an increase of 36 %. Despite firmer prices in recent weeks, market activity has increased as buyers seek to meet their Ramadan needs. Demand is expected to remain strong as some market participants are still trying to cover their needs for the holidays and plan to secure supplies for the November-December period. Stable prices are likely to further boost demand in the coming months. In the Levant region, however, business is cautious as the ongoing conflict continues to affect buyers' purchasing behavior.

Domestic:

A total of 56 million pounds were shipped in September, which is 11 % less than last year, a decrease of 5 % year-over-year. After an increase in August, it appears that we will return to the monthly fluctuations of last year. New sales were up 8 % this month, reaching £83.2m, although total commitments were down 18.8 % year on year. Buyers are still getting used to the firming price levels and are taking their time to decide when to make purchases. The domestic market remains open in anticipation of future demand and total commitments are expected to increase further in the coming months.

Commitments

Total commitments currently stand at 667.4 million pounds, a decrease of 1 % from the previous year. However, export commitments have increased by 10.2 %, indicating low stocks at destinations and a greater need to move products through the pipeline.

Uncommitted stocks increased by 51 % to 467.7 million pounds, which is due to an earlier harvest compared to the previous year. New sales reached 273.4 million pounds, an increase of 1 % from the previous year, with export sales accounting for the majority at 190.1 million pounds. Assuming a crop of 2.8 billion pounds, current shipments and commitments account for 32 % of total supply, down from 34 % last year.

Harvest

After two months, crop receipts have reached 1.04 billion pounds, with the harvest expected to be over 50 % complete. Yields in the southern regions are falling short of expectations, while reports from the central and northern growing regions are more favorable. Many in the industry are skeptical that the 2024 crop will exceed 2.8 billion pounds, and some predict it could be even lower. While it is still too early to make a definitive assessment, the industry should have a clearer picture in January.

Market perspective

The harvest year continues to produce mixed results. While shipments have fallen short of expectations, prices have remained stable. California packers are limiting their offers as they await clearer insights on the crop, and buyers are hesitant to accept current prices, opting for a hand-to-mouth policy. Despite lower shipments and limited demand, prices have remained stable, indicating that supply is more in line with demand compared to recent years. With all major regions reporting a need for additional cover ahead of the vacation and festive season, prices are likely to remain supported through November and December.

Visit us at SIAL Paris from October 19 to 22 in Hall 8 D 159.

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  • Mirko Rybin

    Senior Sales Director Nut Ingredients