Almond market update May 2025

April shipments totaled 45.9 million pounds, up 16 % from the previous month and 39 % from the same period last year. Year-to-date, the backlog is 4 %, with total shipments reaching 307 million pounds, compared to 321.1 million pounds at this time last year. The over 1,400 containers shipped during the month highlights India's efforts to stockpile for the upcoming Diwali festival. Despite the ongoing geopolitical shifts, India continues to source the majority of its almonds from California. Demand is expected to remain strong in the first half of July to ensure supplies arrive before Diwali.

Shipments to the region totaled 9.2 million pounds in the month under review, a decrease of 25 % compared to the previous year. Year-to-date shipments are down 28 % as tariffs continue to impact new sales in the region. Chinese buyers are increasingly sourcing almonds from Australia as the impact of tariffs reduces the competitiveness of Californian almonds. With the recent announcement of a US tariff of 45 % on shipments to China for a period of 90 days, buyers may be looking to hedge their positions against a potentially smaller Australian crop. Meanwhile, sales of kernels to Vietnam continue to rise, resulting in a 45 % increase in shipments year-on-year through April. It is clear that Vietnam has become the preferred destination for production as shifting geopolitical dynamics continue to alter global trade flows.

Europe reported a total of 66.5 million pounds of shipments for April, an increase of 23 % from the same month last year, bringing the continent's year-to-date total to -1 %. Many European buyers have been buying hand-to-mouth all year, which was particularly evident this month after a slow March. Two key markets, Spain and Germany, saw declines this year, but these were offset by increases in the Netherlands and Italy, which rose by 28 % and 10 % respectively. Both countries have now overtaken Germany in the ranking of European almond importers. As reporting for the rest of the year is still pending, demand is expected to remain stable.

The Middle East experienced another strong month of shipments, totaling 29.8 million pounds, an increase of 8 % compared to April 2024. Year-to-date, the region is up 13 %, maintaining strong demand for California almonds and proving to be a consistent bright spot for the industry this year. Several countries in the region saw significant year-on-year growth: Turkey by 24 %, Jordan by 39 % and Saudi Arabia by 34 %. Although Turkey had a weaker month in April, Mersin continues to be an important trading center alongside Dubai. Buyers in the region have been stocking up nearby but are likely to make additional purchases to meet their July requirements as we approach the transition period ahead of the new crop.

A total of 53.3 million pounds were shipped in April, a decrease of 17.8 % compared to the previous year. This brings year-to-date shipments to 518.8 million pounds, a decrease of 5.2 % compared to the previous year. New sales in April totaled just over 51 million pounds, resulting in commitments of 202.5 million pounds, a decrease of 16.97 % compared to crop year 2023. The domestic market has now seen six consecutive months of year-on-year declines, with the last two months seeing declines of over 17 %. While consumer spending and purchasing decisions have weakened, there is a possibility of stabilization in the coming months.