SHIPMENTS
India: Shipments to India were 27.5 million pounds for the month, down 19.6% to last month and up 15.0% to last year. India has shipped a consistent 32 to 35 million lbs for the prior 6 months. With pricing for inshell firming over the course of the last 6 weeks, we have seen the market pull back on purchases resulting in a lower shipment number for the month. The market still has demand to cover for the May/June shipment period and is expected to come back in the coming weeks to cover their future demand.
China: Shipments were strong for a second consecutive month at 24.7 million pounds. This is up 13% to last month and 275% to last year. YTD shipments to China now outpace last year by 19% after having trailed for the first half of the crop year. Buying activity has gone quiet after 3 months of active purchasing to restock supplies following the removal of COVID restrictions. This has resulted in local market prices being lower than California offers further muting demand. Australia is now offering to China although limited business has been done given weak nearby demand. The market is expected to remain calm as it enters the quiet period of the late spring and summer months.
Europe: Shipments to the European market were down 8% for the month compared to last year. Processors and traders throughout the region took longer positions in January at the lower levels. Overall, European demand is subdued given continuing macroeconomic challenges throughout the region. Purchasing in Europe has backed off over the last month as pricing firmed. Europe will likely continue to be challenged to reach last year’s robust shipment numbers for the upcoming months.
Middle East: Shipments to the Middle East continue at an exceptional pace with the market now up 59% year to date and March up 90% to last year. The Middle East has continued to be a strong driver of global consumption this season as low market prices have driven exceptional volume year-to-date.
Domestic: Domestic shipments were recorded at 66.4 million pounds, a 7.5% decline versus last year. Key channels and categories driving almond consumption continue to face headwinds with inflationary pressures affecting consumer spending habits. Expectations are for current demand patterns to persist for the balance of the crop year.
COMMITMENTS
March commitments now sit at 647 million pounds which is down 22% to last year. New sales for the month were disappointing at 143 million pounds, down 35% to last year. This can be attributed to reduced activity from buyers and sellers alike given the uncertainty of new crop production resulting from the unfavorable bloom weather in February and into March. Uncommitted inventory is now 881 million pounds, down 5.9% to last year. Sold and shipped as a percent of the total supply (assuming a 2.55 billion pound crop) is 73.3% compared to 72.5% last year.
CROP
Many in the market are anxious to understand the effects of the unfavorable bloom weather on the 2023 almond crop. We are still weeks away from understanding the impact on production and ultimately its effect on price. The industry will continue to monitor the progress of the crop while various estimates will be released in the coming weeks offering some additional forecast and perspective, inclusive of the NASS Subjective estimate on May 12.
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Shipments continued their strong pace in March turning in another season high and third consecutive month of record shipments over the prior year. Strong sales activity in December and January pushed shipments in both February and March, allowing the industry to maintain momentum to date. Export shipments continue to lead way and are now ahead of last year’s pace. Domestic shipments continue to lag.
Leading up to the almond bloom, price had been relatively stable. Price has firmed in recent weeks given the poor bloom weather received in February and March. This has dampened buying and selling activity in the short term as evidenced by the low new sales figure reported for the month. Favorable uncommitted inventories and strong shipments to date have set the industry up well to draw down the carryout to more manageable levels. The industry focus is on closing out the balance of this crop year as the market awaits news on the 2023 crop.